If you’re like me, your feeds have been full of predictions for 2025. People love speculating on what the year ahead has in store. It can be great fun; even useful sometimes, as long as you don't take it too seriously. But in a world that moves faster and with more volatility than at any point in living memory, you can be forgiven for wondering, “really, what’s the point?”

That’s not to say it’s not useful for businesses to look at their year ahead, to think about what their customers (and other stakeholders) might need, and to plan for what might happen. Far from it. But we can't possbly know everything that comes our way, and straight-line analysis and educated guesses will take us only so far.
This year, I’m keeping it simple. I have only one prediction. In 2025, something no-one expected to happen, will happen, and it might just have an impact on you or your organisation.
Last year was full of surprises. There were elections in more than 100 countries worldwide, including a US election with so many dramatic twists, we’re still trying to figure out what lies behind President Trump’s election. Most of us won’t have expected an attempted coup in Korea, the loss of an ANC majority in South Africa, or regime change in Syria. And that's just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. For businesses navigating the world right now, it can get pretty choppy.
So much for my command of the obvious. A bigger question is what to do about it?
I got my first “real” job in 1995. Since then, I’ve seen successive waves of efficiency come to the workplace. Improved business processes, more powerful tech, advanced automation, and more recently AI, have enabled us to do much more, with greater speed and a smaller headcount. We’re now accustomed to less inventory, faster delivery, and minimal slack in the system. The impact of these changes on all our lives (and on politics) may well be the subject of another post in the future, but there’s little question that, for most of us, this is our 2025 reality.
Whatever the merits of lean organisations, being lean can present challenges in a fast-changing environment. Uncertain waters require us to stress-test decisions against unexpected future events. What will the practical impact be when societal or regulatory expectations change suddenly (such as when tax efficiency becomes seen as tax avoidance, or when a key product or ingredient is found to be unsafe? What happens if an influential individual or group “cancels” you, one of your products, or maybe your entire industry? What if a government hostile to your business or practices sweeps to victory in a major market? Should you respond or lay low?
It's difficult to plan for events you can't anticipate, or to know in advance what to do if an issue hits differently in two important markets. Such challenges often require speed, understanding and deftness, but no-one can be across everything, all the time, all at once. We know that how you respond and the resource allocations you make can make all the difference, but how do you ensure supply chain fluidity, security of people or reliable service in a world where trade wars, actual wars and changing global alliances disrupt the status quo? Moreover, how do you find and seize the opportunities that uncertainty brings?
The risks facing every organisation will be different, but whatever your realities and constraints, it’s worth thinking about a few things you can do to improve your resilience.
Plan for the worst. When I work with organisations on crisis planning, there’s a tendency to focus on the thing executives think is most likely to happen, rather than the thing that has the potential to cause the most disruption. It's understandable - most of us have trouble imagining the worst - but it leaves us vulnerable, and often causes us to freeze (and lose time) if something big or unexpected does hit. There are many planning tools and techniques available to support planning, but no matter how you do it, give some thought to thinking about how you respond in the face of a perfect storm, like a catashrophic event, or multiple events at the same time. How do prioritise? What resources should be deployed where, and how do you make these decisions? It's hard work, but if the unthinkable hits, you'll be very glad you thought it through in calmer times.
Make (controlled) dissent part of decision-making. Last year I wrote a blog on the Israeli Army’s “10th man” strategy, in which someone is specifically charged with challenging the thinking of the rest of the group or considering the unreasonable scenario. In my view, building critical thinking and organised dissent into your organisation is an essential inefficiency in decision-making; it will reduce the probability of a costly delay or a misstep caused by group-think. .
Know your north star. No-one is sure who first coined the phrase “If you don’t stand for something, you’ll fall for anything.” I first heard in in a song by Public Enemy (I believe quoting Malcolm X). But regardless, challenging times require a clear and articulated statement of who you are and what you stand for as an organisation. Without without it, it’s much harder to chart your course in the face of diversity. When major events happen, a shared view of your values and what's important enables more greater agility - and in some cases can become your de facto decision-making guide..
Build “fast” and “flexible” into your processes. One of the major drivers of efficiency in organisations has been a reliance on process. Let me be very clear: iprocess is important; maybe even essential to the smooth and efficient execution of most business activites. It speeds delivery. It reduces the margin for error. Done well, it triages problems so that organisational time is focused on the most challenging situations. But over-reliance on process can also result in rigidity, either because there’s no way to deviate when the situation calls for it, or because everyone is on autopilot, and it never even occurs to them. It can also isolate management from important information or feedback.
It’s implausible to find a single solution for every process-related challenge companies face, but I recommend thinking through , and socialising with staff, a protocol on when and how to interrupt the process. What are the triggers? Who needs to be involved? How can the front line gain comfort with escalating situations that they can't deal with themselves? And when the interruption happens, do you have the structure in place to allow those in charge to move quickly and think with agility? Who has the authority to solve problems on the spot? Thinking through these questions will pay off when the unexpected happens.
Give thought to incentives. Too many companies I have dealt with seem to be of the view that people will do what its leaders consider to be the "right" thing, even if it is not in their interests to do so. In one organisation I worked with, this took the form of regularly exhorting people to share information, time and business leads, even though the business structure explicitly rewarded an "eat what you kill" culture. Sometimes it worked; more often, people prioritised how they were rewarded over what they were told. In times of complexity, that urge to chase incentives is even more acute: most of us feel safer staying in the system rather than sticking our heads up, unless we expect to be rewarded for doing so. There is no single "right way to do ts," but consider whether your team is incentivised to do the right thing under pressure.
The world is a complex and changeable place. In 2025, make sure you’re battle-ready for our unpredictable future.
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